Research Report — Theme 8

THE TOKENISATION
OF EVERYTHING

Real-world asset tokenisation, stablecoins, and digital securities are rebuilding financial plumbing. Follow the token.

MARCH 2026 · @AIccelerateEng

Key Market Stats
$30B+
RWA Tokenised
+240% from 2024
$315B
Stablecoin Market Cap
+49% in 2025
762K
Strategy BTC Holdings
3.6% of total supply
$7.2B
Coinbase FY2025 Revenue
+9% YoY
$4.1B
PYUSD Market Cap
5x in 12 months
13.7M
SoFi Members
+35% YoY
FY2025 Revenue Comparison
$COIN
$7.2B
$PYPL
~$31B*
$SQ (Block)
~$24B*
$HOOD
$4.5B
$SOFI
~$3.5B
$MSTR
$0.5B

* Estimated based on reported quarterly data. $MSTR software revenue only; treasury strategy generates capital gains, not operating revenue. $SQ gross profit: $10.36B.

Tokenisation Value Chain
⚖
Asset Origination
Treasuries, RE, Equity
▶
⛓
Tokenisation
$30B+ RWA on-chain
▶
$
Stablecoin Rails
$PYPL $SOFI USDC
▶
⚖
Exchange & Custody
$COIN $HOOD
▶
☍
Wallet & Consumer
$SQ CashApp Bitkey
▶
◆
Institutional
$MSTR IBIT ETFs
Stock Deep Dives
$COIN
Coinbase Global — Exchange, Custody & Infrastructure
HIGH CONVICTION
FY2025 Revenue
$7.18B
+9% YoY
Trading Volume
$5.2T
+156% YoY
Sub & Services Rev
$2.83B
Record High
USDC On Platform
$41.9B
+39% Q/Q (Q1'25)
Base L2 Revenue
$75.4M
62% of all L2
Deribit Acquisition
$2.9B
Closed Aug 2025
Investment Thesis
Coinbase has transformed from exchange to full-stack crypto infrastructure. Custodian for 9/11 Bitcoin ETFs and 8/9 Ethereum ETFs. Deribit acquisition makes it the world's largest crypto derivatives platform. Base L2 dominates with 46% of DeFi TVL ($4.63B) and 62% of L2 revenue. Nearly 1M paid Coinbase One subscribers. ~12% of total crypto market cap in custody.
Bull Case
Infrastructure monopoly + derivatives revenue diversification + Base L2 flywheel with 9.3M MAU feeding on-chain. Subscription revenue provides counter-cyclical stability.
Bear Case
Q4 2025 GAAP net loss of $667M from crypto marks. OpEx up 35% YoY. Revenue still cyclically tied to trading volume. Fee compression from competition.
$HOOD
Robinhood Markets — Retail Gateway & Brokerage
MEDIUM-HIGH
FY2025 Revenue
$4.5B
Record Year
Platform Assets
$324B
+68% YoY
Diluted EPS
$2.05
Record
Net Deposits 2025
$68.1B
35%+ Ann. Growth
Gold Subscribers
4.2M
+58% YoY
Q1'25 Crypto Rev
$252M
+100% YoY
Investment Thesis
Robinhood is the dominant retail on-ramp to digital assets. $324B in platform assets positions it as a fintech giant. Revenue diversification is working: options (+41%), equities (+54%), and prediction markets/securities lending (+300% in Q4). Gold subscriber growth drives recurring revenue at higher ARPU. Crypto remains a powerful optionality lever.
Bull Case
$324B in assets × rising ARPU × crypto optionality. Gold subscription flywheel creates recurring revenue base. Multi-asset platform with prediction markets expansion.
Bear Case
Q4'25 crypto revenue -38% YoY. Crypto notional volumes down 52% YoY in Q4. Revenue highly sensitive to market sentiment and retail trading activity.
$MSTR
Strategy (fka MicroStrategy) — Bitcoin Treasury Company
SPECULATIVE-HIGH
BTC Holdings
762,099
3.6% of total supply
BTC Cost Basis
$75,699
Avg. per BTC
Capital Raised 2025
$25.3B
Largest US Issuer
BTC Yield FY2025
22.8%
+101,873 BTC net
STRC (Digital Credit)
$3.4B
11.25% div. rate
USD Reserve
$2.25B
2.5yr div. coverage
Investment Thesis
Strategy is the purest leveraged Bitcoin exposure in public markets. The 42/42 Plan targets $84B in capital raises through 2027 to accumulate 1M BTC. Five preferred stock IPOs in 2025 (STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, STRE) created a Digital Credit platform with bitcoin-backed fixed income. 100% of 2025 preferred distributions treated as non-taxable return of capital.
Bull Case
762K BTC holdings × BTC price appreciation = massive NAV upside. Digital Credit instruments create new market category. If 42/42 plan executes, 1M BTC by end 2026.
Bear Case
mNAV diluted at 0.937 (below 1.0). Q4'25 net loss of $12.4B on unrealised BTC declines. Existential BTC price dependency. Dilution risk from continuous equity issuance.
$SOFI
SoFi Technologies — Banking, Lending & Stablecoin
HIGH CONVICTION
Q4 2025 Revenue
$1.0B+
+37% YoY (adj.)
2026 Guidance
$4.66B
~30% growth
Total Members
13.7M
+35% YoY
Total Products
20.2M
+37% YoY
Fee-Based Revenue
$443M
+53% YoY (Q4)
SoFiUSD Launch
Dec 2025
1st Bank Stablecoin
Investment Thesis
SoFi is the first nationally chartered bank to launch crypto trading (Nov 2025) and a stablecoin (Dec 2025) on public blockchain. SoFiUSD infrastructure is open for white-labelling by other banks and fintechs. 160M+ accounts on Galileo platform. Sixth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Q4 originations hit record $10.5B (+46% YoY). 2026 adjusted net income guided at ~$825M.
Bull Case
Bank charter + stablecoin first mover + Galileo distribution = unique crypto-banking convergence. 30% revenue growth guided for 2026. Business banking launch in 2026 adds B2B.
Bear Case
$10.5B quarterly originations create credit cycle risk. Crypto is a latecomer advantage vs. native platforms. Tech Platform accounts down 23% YoY (client transition).
$SQ
Block (Square/Cash App) — Payments & Bitcoin Ecosystem
MEDIUM CONVICTION
FY2025 Gross Profit
$10.36B
+17% YoY
Cash App MAU
59M
+22% banking
BTC Holdings
8,883
~$778M value
2026 GP Guidance
$12.2B
+18% YoY
BFCM Transactions
124M
+10% YoY
Square BTC Payments
Oct 2025
Zero-Fee Launch
Investment Thesis
Block is building the most comprehensive Bitcoin ecosystem in fintech: Cash App (buy/sell/transfer), Square Bitcoin Payments (merchant acceptance at zero fees), Bitkey (self-custody), Proto (mining hardware, H2 2025), and Spiral (open-source dev). The merchant-to-consumer loop creates unique two-sided Bitcoin adoption. 59M Cash App MAU with 22% growth in primary banking.
Bull Case
Full-stack Bitcoin company (mining → wallet → payments → exchange). Square merchant BTC payments create two-sided network effect. Exceeded Rule of 40 in Q4'25.
Bear Case
Bitcoin revenue contributes thin margins. FY2025 net revenue declined 3% (Bitcoin-related slowdown). Workforce reduction of ~40%. Macro sensitivity on merchant GPV.
$PYPL
PayPal Holdings — Stablecoin Rails & Global Commerce
MEDIUM-HIGH
Q1 2025 Revenue
$7.8B
GAAP EPS +56%
Active Accounts
436M
+2% YoY
PYUSD Market Cap
$4.1B
5x in 12 months
PYUSD Markets
70
Expanded Mar 2026
TPV (Q1'25)
$417B
+3% YoY
Merchant Crypto Adoption
39%
US merchants
Investment Thesis
PayPal's PYUSD has quintupled to $4.1B market cap and expanded to 70 markets globally (March 2026). "Pay with Crypto" (July 2025) enables near-instant settlement at lower cost. 39% of U.S. merchants now accept crypto (PayPal/NCA survey), with 84% expecting it to be standard within 5 years. 436M active accounts provide unmatched stablecoin distribution. Eligible PYUSD holders earn 4% yield.
Bull Case
436M accounts × PYUSD in 70 markets = dominant stablecoin distribution. Operating margins expanding (+447bps). Crypto becoming material revenue driver.
Bear Case
Revenue growth just 1% YoY in Q1'25. Total transactions down 7%. Competitive pressure from Apple Pay, Stripe, and native crypto platforms. PYUSD still small vs. USDT/USDC.
Risk / Reward Matrix

Position reflects relative risk (X-axis) vs. reward potential (Y-axis). Hover for details.

REWARD POTENTIAL → RISK LEVEL →
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
Catalyst Timeline — 2026/2027
Q1 2026
PYUSD Expands to 70 Markets Globally
PayPal brings its dollar-backed stablecoin to Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Market cap hits $4.1B.
Q1 2026
Strategy Surpasses 762K BTC — Targets 1M by Year-End
42/42 Plan ($84B total capital) accelerates. STRC Digital Credit scales to $3.4B with 11.25% variable rate.
Q1 2026
RWA Tokenisation Crosses $30B
240%+ growth from 2024. Tokenised U.S. Treasuries at ~$9.6B. BlackRock BUIDL leads with $1.7B.
Q2 2026
GENIUS Act Implementing Regulations Due
Federal and state regulators must issue implementing rules within one year of July 2025 enactment. Capital, liquidity, and reserve standards finalised.
Q2 2026
Coinbase Deribit Integration Deepens
Unified derivatives platform combining spot, futures, perpetuals, and options. Targeting full-spectrum institutional trading.
Q2 2026
SoFi Launches Business Banking for Fiat + Crypto
First bank-grade platform serving businesses and institutions transacting in both fiat and cryptocurrency.
H2 2026
Block Proto Mining Chips Enter Production
Block's custom ASIC mining hardware completes the full-stack Bitcoin ecosystem: mine → hold → pay → spend.
H2 2026
Tokenised Funds & Private Markets Scale
Beyond T-bills: tokenised mutual funds, private credit, and consumer-grade tokenised products compete with traditional offerings.
2027
Strategy 42/42 Plan Completion Target
$84B total capital raises through equity and fixed-income. 1M BTC target. Digital Credit ecosystem matures.
2027–2028
GENIUS Act Full Compliance Deadline
Three-year transition period for existing stablecoin issuers. State-regulated issuers above $10B must transition to federal oversight.
Sources
Coinbase FY2025 Earnings Robinhood Q4/FY2025 Results Strategy Q4 2025 Financial Results SoFi Q4 2025 Earnings Block Q4 2025 Results PayPal Q1 2025 Earnings PayPal PYUSD 70 Markets Expansion White House — GENIUS Act Fact Sheet White House — Strategic Bitcoin Reserve EO InvestaX — RWA Tokenisation 2026 Outlook Latham & Watkins — GENIUS Act Analysis SoFi — SoFiUSD Stablecoin Launch Coinbase — Deribit Acquisition Close Block — Square Bitcoin Payments Launch PANews — Base L2 2025 Report PayPal/NCA — 39% Merchant Crypto Adoption World Economic Forum — Stablecoins 2026 Strategy — Bitcoin Purchase Tracker
Disclaimer: This is research and analysis only, not personalised financial advice. All data sourced from public filings, earnings reports, and official press releases. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.